This is great, the best presentation of what's in the Declaration that I've seen!
I'm surprised by the positive Rule of Law score - over at Bright Line Watch, a survey of legal professionals finds American rule of law at the lowest level that respondents can remember. Any idea what's driving that difference?
Great question Samuel! There are three key reasons. First, the scores here are aggregated across the full year from July 2025 to June 2026. This means the aggregate is accounting for times the judiciary has checked the executive or upheld liberties as well as times they have not over the past year on a week-by-week basis. The recent Bright Line Watch legal expert survey is looking at rule of law over a longer time horizon comparing expert assessments over several years. Additionally, there is a notable divergence in the findings across legal conservatives and legal liberals, see chart “Legal expert ratings of the rule of law in the U.S.” in their report (https://brightlinewatch.org/erosion-of-the-rule-of-law-in-trumps-second-term/). We try to balance divergences in perspective like this by drawing from ideologically diverse sources. Finally, the narrative responses suggest that legal experts surveyed are concerned about the broader imbalance of checks and balances picked up under other factors within the RealTime DemTrends framework (e.g. executive precedent or legislative processes). For example, “Lawlessness is rampant. The rule of law is on a precipice in the United States. The current leadership in the Executive Branch and the lack of leadership in the Legislative Branch are a double-fisted threat to the rule of law.” … “The nation is strong as is its commitment to the rule of law, but the current president presents the greatest threat in decades.”
Painfully relevant, timely, and hope-inspiring. Thank you!
This is great, the best presentation of what's in the Declaration that I've seen!
I'm surprised by the positive Rule of Law score - over at Bright Line Watch, a survey of legal professionals finds American rule of law at the lowest level that respondents can remember. Any idea what's driving that difference?
Great question Samuel! There are three key reasons. First, the scores here are aggregated across the full year from July 2025 to June 2026. This means the aggregate is accounting for times the judiciary has checked the executive or upheld liberties as well as times they have not over the past year on a week-by-week basis. The recent Bright Line Watch legal expert survey is looking at rule of law over a longer time horizon comparing expert assessments over several years. Additionally, there is a notable divergence in the findings across legal conservatives and legal liberals, see chart “Legal expert ratings of the rule of law in the U.S.” in their report (https://brightlinewatch.org/erosion-of-the-rule-of-law-in-trumps-second-term/). We try to balance divergences in perspective like this by drawing from ideologically diverse sources. Finally, the narrative responses suggest that legal experts surveyed are concerned about the broader imbalance of checks and balances picked up under other factors within the RealTime DemTrends framework (e.g. executive precedent or legislative processes). For example, “Lawlessness is rampant. The rule of law is on a precipice in the United States. The current leadership in the Executive Branch and the lack of leadership in the Legislative Branch are a double-fisted threat to the rule of law.” … “The nation is strong as is its commitment to the rule of law, but the current president presents the greatest threat in decades.”