Test 7: US Democracy Trends Weekly Report: June 16-22, 2025

BLUF: 5 factors show improvement, 13 factors show decline, and 21 factors remain stable.

Jun 24, 2025

Welcome to our weekly update on political accountability across the 12 dimensions and 39 key factors that shape the US democratic system. This analysis draws from 2,382 articles across 15 news sources across the political spectrum, providing granular trend data to complement expert-rated indices like V-Dem, Freedom House, and Bright Line Watch.

Bottom Line Up Front: Of the 39 political accountability factors we track for the United States this week, 5 are showing improvement, 13 are showing decline, and 21 remain stable. Our weekly data points to a week with notable declines in executive precedent as it relates to war powers authorization and federal media workforce reductions, balanced by institutional resilience in courts and civil society. These dynamics suggest that expert assessments from V-Dem or Bright Line Watch, if captured today, would likely reflect these observed shifts toward executive overreach, strain on media freedom alongside judicial system and civil society pushback.

The System is Stepping Up: On the Path to Activating all Dimensions of Democracy

Compared to prior weeks of this experimental “RealTime DemTrends” efforts, the number of factors being leveraged across the US democratic system has jumped significantly. More key stakeholders within the system are getting involved and using their levers to hold government accountable as the Trump administration starts to engage in even more extreme and controversial military decisions such as striking Iranian nuclear facilities without prior Congressional authorization, which supporters argue was necessary for national security while critics cite constitutional concerns. For the first time at a federal level, we've started to see a bipartisan Congressional response... will Congress step up to fulfill its constitutional authority?

Key Factors Shifting Last Week

DECLINING FACTORS

Digital Democracy - Moderate Decline (-2)

The Trump administration used healthcare data from state Medicaid systems to facilitate immigration raids, representing what critics called misuse of digital systems for enforcement purposes, though administration officials defended the practices as necessary for immigration law compliance. Meanwhile, Republicans alleged that blue state health programs leaked patient data to Big Tech companies. Additionally, federal courts ordered the preservation of Trump officials' Signal messages for investigation, and the TikTok ban deadline was extended for the third time, creating ongoing uncertainty about platform regulation and digital rights.

Relevant Articles:

Executive Precedent - Minor Decline (-1)

President Trump ordered military strikes against Iran. The use of war powers without Congressional authorization sparked constitutional debate, with supporters arguing it was necessary to prevent nuclear proliferation while critics warned of separation of powers concerns. The progressive "Squad" and some Republican lawmakers made moves to join forces on a bipartisan War Powers Resolution, garnering backlash against Massie and threats to throw him out of the GOP.

Relevant Articles:

Crisis Response - Minor Decline (-1)

While emergency systems functioned properly with terrorism warnings and evacuations, the president threatened to withhold disaster aid from California over political disputes, representing politicization of crisis response.

Relevant Articles:

Homeland Security warns of possible terrorist attacks in US following strike on Iran (New York Post)
Trump Suggests He May Withhold California Disaster Aid Over His Feud With Newsom (New York Times)

Sub-national Autonomy - Minor Decline (-1)

Federal authorities maintained control over California's National Guard despite sustained state opposition. California Governor Newsom challenged this as executive overreach, declaring 'Trump is not a king,' while federal officials argued they had constitutional authority to deploy National Guard during civil unrest. Multiple court rulings upheld federal authority to override traditional state control over National Guard units during non-emergency periods.

Relevant Articles:

2,000 more National Guard troops on duty in L.A. as legal battle over deployment continues (NBC News)
Appeals Court Lets Trump Keep Control of California National Guard in L.A. (The New York Times)
California Governor Gavin Newsom claims 'Trump is not a king' after crucial National Guard control case (Fox News)
US court allows Trump to keep control of California national guard while lawsuit proceeds (The Guardian)
Appeals Court Lets Trump Keep Control of California National Guard Troops in L.A. (The Wall Street Journal)

Independence and Safety of Journalists - Minor Decline (-1)

The trend of cracking down on journalists based on their reporting activities continued this week with efforts to deport a reporter from El Salvador based out of Georgia and an Australian student blogger, covering immigration and the Colombia protests respectively. Press freedom advocates called out the efforts as intentional targeting of the media to create a chilling effect, while ICE officials said they were following standard deportation procedures for individuals without legal status. Another journalist is harmed while covering immigration protests, this time in Seattle.

Relevant Articles:

ICE Moves to Deport Georgia Immigration Reporter (The Wall Street Journal)
Reporter Is Detained by ICE After Reporting on Immigration Protest (The New York Times)
Seattle journalists attacked by agitators call out far-left media for covering up violence at protests (New York Post)
Australian deported from US says he was ‘targeted’ due to writing on pro-Palestine student protests (The Guardian)

Media Freedom and Plurality & Civil Service Professionalism - Minor Decline (-1)

The federal government reduced the Voice of America workforce by approximately 85%, which critics called an attack on independent media while supporters argued it eliminated inefficiencies in federal broadcasting. The workforce reduction eliminates a source of independent journalism and international broadcasting, a step in the direction of concentrating media power and reducing media plurality.

Relevant Articles:

Layoff notices delivered to hundreds of Voice of America employees (Washington Times)
Hundreds of Federal Workers at Voice of America Receive Layoff Notices (The New York Times)
Hundreds of Voice of America reporters fired as Trump guts outlet (BBC)
Reporters for Voice of America and other U.S. networks fear what's next (NPR)

Social Cohesion - Minor Decline (-1)

Political violence and ethnic targeting undermined social trust across communities from ICE raids to the hunt for the gunman in the Minnesota shootings last week.

Relevant Articles:

'I'm an American, Bro!': Latinos Report Raids in Which U.S. Citizenship Is Questioned (The New York Times)
2 arrests in hit-and-run at Southern California 'No Kings' protest (ABC News)
A White Nationalist at University of Florida Wrote a Paper Promoting Racist Views. It Won Him an Award. (The New York Times)

'He's right there!': How the Minnesota attacks and manhunt unfolded (The Washington Post)
40 hours of violence and fear as gunman stalks Minnesota politicians (ABC News)

Inclusion of Diverse Voices - Minor Decline (-1)

Transgender servicemembers faced uncertain futures under new military policies, while the federal civil rights agency defended decisions that undercut transgender workplace protections. Additionally, courts heard evidence of racial gerrymandering in Florida state senate districts, representing systematic institutional exclusion policies across multiple sectors.

Relevant Articles:

'I still want to serve': Transgender servicemembers face uncertain future under Trump admin (NBC News)
Acting head of civil rights agency defends decisions undercutting transgender workers (Washington Times)
Florida Republicans racially gerrymandered two state senate districts, court hears (The Guardian)

Respect for Human Rights - Minor Decline (-1)

An ICE detainee died in transit, highlighting ongoing human rights concerns in immigration detention, while experts warned more deaths were likely. Additionally, DHS restricted Congressional access to ICE detention facilities, reducing oversight of detention conditions. Ukrainian refugees also faced restrictions under new executive orders, limiting protection for vulnerable populations. The Supreme Court ruling on transgender transition case in Tennessee receives mixed reviews from the right and left.

Relevant Articles:

Agency Politicization - Minor Decline (-1)

The Department of Justice sued Democratic states over immigration policies while the president demanded special prosecutors for politically motivated investigations. ICE targeted immigration reporters for deportation, while DHS restricted Congressional access to detention facilities and the IRS opened investigations into protest funding. These actions represent continued weaponization of federal agencies for partisan purposes, with coverage across the political spectrum documenting the systematic targeting of Democratic states and political opponents.

Relevant Articles:

Liberal Markets - Minor Decline (-1)

Government intervention in private markets continued through tariff policies and direct involvement in corporate acquisitions, with the Supreme Court rejecting accelerated review of business challenges to trade restrictions.

Relevant Articles:

Companies Ask Supreme Court to Fast-Track Challenge to Tariffs (The New York Times)
US supreme court declines to fast-track challenge to Trump tariffs (The Guardian)
Japan's Nippon seals controversial US Steel deal after Trump pact (BBC)
Nippon Steel's $15B purchase of US Steel closes — with big role for Trump (New York Post)

Economic Inequality - Minor Decline (-1)

Rising costs continued to burden American families. Oil prices jumped following Iran strikes, raising concerns about energy costs, while the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates affected borrowing costs. The wealth contrast became stark as families struggled with food inflation and billionaires made headlines for luxury spending and threats to close businesses over political disagreements.

Relevant Articles:

IMPROVING FACTORS

Rule of Law - Minor Improvement (+1)

Federal courts ruled against several administration policies across multiple areas, demonstrating judicial independence, while administration officials argued some rulings exceeded judicial authority. Meanwhile, the GOP is exploring new ways of limiting traditional forms of protest.

Relevant Articles:

Judicial Review and Constitutional Adjudication - Minor Improvement (+1)

Whether you agree with the rulings or not, the Supreme Court actively adjudicated major constitutional questions, from state authority over transgender care to federal agency oversight powers. This represents robust constitutional review across ideological lines.

Relevant Articles:

Freedom of Inquiry and Innovation - Minor Improvement (+1)

Federal courts protected university autonomy by blocking restrictions on international students at Harvard, while diplomatic talks resumed to resolve the broader dispute. Academic freedom showed resilience through judicial protection.

Relevant Articles:

Federal judge blocks Trump effort to keep Harvard from hosting foreign students (Washington Times)
Harvard and Trump Restart Talks to Potentially End Bitter Dispute (The New York Times)
US resumes student visas but orders enhanced social media vetting (BBC News)

Contentious Politics and Popular Mobilization - Minor Improvement (+1)

New anti-war protests emerged in response to Iran strikes while tensions in Los Angeles de-escalated peacefully, showing healthy democratic protest and conflict resolution.

Relevant Articles:

Civil Society Oversight - Minor Improvement (+1)

Faith leaders mobilized resistance to immigration raids, parent groups successfully challenged religious establishment in schools, and watchdog organizations continued oversight activities across multiple issues.

Relevant Articles:

Cross-Factor Story Analysis

This week featured several major stories that touched multiple democracy factors from different angles:

Iran Military Strikes generated the most complex cross-factor impacts. The military action without Congressional authorization damaged Executive Precedent (-1) and Crisis Response (-1) according to constitutional scholars. However, national security experts argued it was necessary to prevent nuclear weapons development. The move may strengthen Inter-Party Deliberation and Respect through bipartisan constitutional pushback. Intergovernmental Cooperation showed early signs of strain when Trump refused to sign joint G7 statements calling for Middle East de-escalation and left the summit early.

ICE Enforcement Operations created complex cross-factor impacts, with critics citing negative effects on multiple democratic factors while supporters emphasized law enforcement and border security benefits. This factor affects Social Cohesion (-1) through ethnic targeting, Respect for Human Rights (-1) through detention deaths, Digital Democracy (-2) through healthcare data misuse, and Independence and Safety of Journalists (-1) through reporter targeting. However, this also generated positive Contentious Politics and Popular Mobilization (+1) and Civil Society Oversight (+1) as faith leaders and advocacy groups mobilized resistance.

Harvard University continued to push back against government pressure initially threatening Freedom of Inquiry and Innovation before federal courts intervened to protect academic autonomy (+1). This reinforced Rule of Law (+1) while highlighting Agency Politicization (-1) in the original targeting.

Voice of America layoffs impacted both Independence and Safety of Journalists (-1) and Media Freedom and Plurality (-1) as federal worker firings undermine access to a long-running news source.

Issues to Watch

Several factors remain stable but merit close monitoring as policy proposals and ongoing developments could significantly impact next week's assessments:

War Powers: Watch for momentum surrounding the bipartisan war powers resolution introduced this week, as Congressional leaders from both parties test whether shared constitutional concerns over executive military action can overcome partisan divisions in the current political climate. The resolution's fate will signal whether Interparty Deliberation and Legislative Processes remain viable on fundamental separation of powers issues, potentially affecting Executive Precedent.

Diplomatic Tensions going into NATO Summit: Trump's early departure from the G7 Summit in Canada after refusing to sign joint statements calling for de-escalation will face follow-up tests at this week's NATO Summit in The Hague (starting Tuesday, June 24) and the 55th OAS General Assembly in Antigua and Barbuda (June 25-27). These gatherings will reveal whether Intergovernmental Cooperation can be maintained despite divergent US approaches to Middle East policy, particularly as NATO members debate defense spending increases amid regional instability, potentially impacting Liberal Markets and Crisis Response.

Economic Policy: The upcoming decision on the budget recissions and "Big Beautiful Bill" containing Medicaid cuts, tax breaks for wealthy businesses, and no tax on tips and overtime, could substantially affect Horizontal Equity if enacted, among other factors.

Technology Regulation: Proposed federal preemption of state AI regulation represents a major test of Regulatory Systems and federalism principles.

Election Security: While the FBI is actively exploring foreign interference attempts, threats to Electoral Process Validity require vigilance.

National Economic Security: Trade discussions with China and export control policies are developing rapidly, with potential major impacts on economic competitiveness.

Information Environment: AI-generated content challenges continue to test Information Integrity systems, though no systemic breakdown has occurred.

This analysis examined 2,382 articles from 15 news sources across the political spectrum (41% left-leaning, 47% right-leaning, 12% centrist) during June 16-22, 2025. We focused exclusively on current week developments rather than historical trends, applied strict evidence thresholds requiring multiple source verification, and maintained cross-partisan source representation for all scored factors. Human review verified all factor classifications and scoring decisions. Cross-source verification was maintained throughout the analysis to ensure balanced perspectives across the political spectrum. The analysis for this week was conducted using a combination of AI for Sheets™ Gemini™ GPT and Claude's Sonnet 4 model. We also continued with our volunteer review process to double-check the classification logic. Reviewers this week: Linda Stern, Thomas Garrett, and Sarah Waggoner. Thank you team! If you are interested in joining the review process, please send me a message.

RealTime DemTrends

Test 7: US Democracy Trends Weekly Report: June 16-22, 2025

BLUF: 5 factors show improvement, 13 factors show decline, and 21 factors remain stable.

The System is Stepping Up: On the Path to Activating all Dimensions of Democracy

Key Factors Shifting Last Week

DECLINING FACTORS

Digital Democracy - Moderate Decline (-2)

Executive Precedent - Minor Decline (-1)

Crisis Response - Minor Decline (-1)

Sub-national Autonomy - Minor Decline (-1)

Independence and Safety of Journalists - Minor Decline (-1)

Media Freedom and Plurality & Civil Service Professionalism - Minor Decline (-1)

Social Cohesion - Minor Decline (-1)

Inclusion of Diverse Voices - Minor Decline (-1)

Respect for Human Rights - Minor Decline (-1)

Agency Politicization - Minor Decline (-1)

Liberal Markets - Minor Decline (-1)

Economic Inequality - Minor Decline (-1)

IMPROVING FACTORS

Rule of Law - Minor Improvement (+1)

Judicial Review and Constitutional Adjudication - Minor Improvement (+1)

Freedom of Inquiry and Innovation - Minor Improvement (+1)

Contentious Politics and Popular Mobilization - Minor Improvement (+1)

Civil Society Oversight - Minor Improvement (+1)

Cross-Factor Story Analysis

Issues to Watch

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